The latest ALN data shows that while new multifamily deliveries are moderating, the sector continues to face significant supply headwinds. Despite a pullback from 2024’s record peak, 2026 will still see roughly 415,000 new units entering lease‑up, much of it concentrated in already supply-heavy Sunbelt markets.

At the same time, the industry is carrying a substantial lease‑up backlog of ~740,000 units, creating competitive pressure on occupancy, rent growth, and concessions well into the year. National occupancy remains below normal ranges, and widespread rent discounts continue to weigh on effective rents.

For investors, the message is clear: performance dispersion will widen, and disciplined market selection matters more than ever. At Romano Capital, we’re staying focused on markets with durable demand drivers, balanced supply pipelines, and long‑term fundamentals that outperform through cycles.